Labor Day is over, kids are back in school, the weather is changing, and you’re about to see a billion political ads.
Today marks the unofficial start of the election season. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be hyper-focused on political ad spending and reach in battlegrounds across the country.
We’ll start by taking a high-level look at 2026: where has spend been concentrated, where will we see future spend, and who is leading in reach so far?
What’s at stake?
Control of the Senate, House, governors’ mansions, and state legislatures across the country.
Every election seems close now, and 2026 is no different. What is different is an expanded map (Texas and New Hampshire both in play) and more money than ever.
Nate Silver (my modeler of choice) gives Democrats a 50.6% chance of controlling the Senate and an 82.7% chance of controlling the House.
From now through Election Day, the money will pour into competitive states and districts.
Will the environment continue to sour on Republicans, or will the Republican money advantage lead to an overestimation of Democratic chances in August polling, as it has in the last 6 cycles (shoutout to Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights for his analysis)?
Note: the Republican money advantage is back in play. In an 8-1 decision, the Supreme Court ruled this week that (for now) Lowest Unit Rates must be recognized in coordinated buys.
How much has been spent in 2026 so far?
$3.9B
Adding the $1.7B spent in 2025, the 2025/2026 cycle stands at $5.6B. To put that in perspective, at this point in the 2023/2024 cycle, we were at $4.7B. This cycle is running nearly $1B ahead of the same point in the last presidential cycle.
56% has been spent on broadcast or cable.
All the way back in Impressions to Ballots #2, we projected that 59% of ad spend would come from broadcast and cable.
What states have accounted for 2026 ad spend?
Through Aug. 31, spending remained concentrated in states with the most competitive partisan primaries.
California leads, with more than half a billion dollars spent on the gubernatorial primary and November’s ballot initiatives. While it is not a swing state, California may lead all states in ad spending by year’s end.
Where is future spend booked?
$1.7B in future broadcast and cable spending is already booked, primarily in Senate swing states.
Digital and Streaming reserves are not public. If these reserves follow the same breakdown we’ve seen so far this year, it will represent $3B of future spend.
Who is leading in TV reach?
We are measuring the reach and frequency of all TV spend in competitive states and districts among Likely Voters.
The map below shows the party-to-party share of voice on broadcast for each state. It gives a quick gut check on which candidates mustered more support in August. Democrats served more impressions to likely voters in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska. Republicans led in Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and New Hampshire, which has not yet held its primary.
Reach and frequency varied dramatically by state. For reference, New Hampshire and Maine are among the highest TV-consuming states in the country. Additionally, because they are smaller states, it takes less money to max out TV. On the other end of that spectrum, even the largest TV budget is stretched pretty thin across Texas’ 20 media markets.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
The countdown to Election Day has begun. Campaigns should have plans and reservations in place. If you don’t, you risk losing inventory and control of pricing.
Play Moneyball. Campaigns follow competitive spending closely. Instead of matching your opponent, test less mainstream strategies.
Track other races. Spending up and down the ballot shapes the broader media environment around your voters. Be ready to account for and respond to that broader context.