We are 13 weeks away from Election Day 2026. That's one business quarter or one college football season from today.
In a month, the election will become the biggest news story in the country. Talking heads and pollsters will flood the airwaves with predictions, most of which will be wrong.
Democrats have a historical edge going into the midterm election with Republicans in power. At the same time, the Cook Political Report currently rates enough House and Senate races as toss-ups that either party could come out on top.
I'll leave the election predictions to everyone else. Three months out, however, we're finally getting a clear picture of where political advertising dollars will concentrate and which party currently holds the advantage.
How much has already been spent this cycle?
$4.9B
Which Party has spent the most so far?
Largely driven by primary elections, Democratic and Republican spending has been nearly even so far.
How much more spend can we expect to see?
Using the 2024 cycle as a barometer, 67% of political advertising spend came after August 1.
If 2026 followed a similar pattern, total political advertising spend would eclipse $15 billion.
However, 2026 is very different from the 2024 presidential cycle. Several of the cycle's most expensive contests, including the California gubernatorial primary and Virginia's redistricting fight, are already behind us and won't continue into the fall.
How much future ad spend is already reserved?
According to AdImpact, advertisers have already reserved $1.4 billion in future advertising.
These reservations are almost entirely on broadcast television and do not include future reservations on digital channels like connected TV and YouTube.
Which entities have reserved the most ad space?
The top 10 advertisers below make up 73% of total future reserves.
Who has the cash-on-hand advantage going into the Fall?
Among the major PACs and party committees, Republicans currently hold roughly a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage.
National Committees
Following the Supreme Court's June ruling, this advantage could have an outsized impact on the 2026 election.
National PACs
After the Citizens United decision, Super PACs can raise and spend unlimited amounts as long as they do not coordinate directly with campaigns.
Where do Democrats still have an advantage?
In most competitive federal races, Democratic candidates continue to outraise their Republican opponents.
That advantage may matter less this cycle. Following the Supreme Court's June ruling, candidates and party committees can now coordinate strategy and spending, allowing committee dollars to work alongside campaign budgets and messaging.
Republican committees currently hold roughly a $140 million cash advantage over their Democratic counterparts, outweighing the approximately $80 million fundraising advantage Democratic candidates have built.
How important is a cash advantage?
More money creates more opportunities to reach voters. But it doesn't guarantee victory. The candidate, the political environment, and campaign strategy can all overcome a spending disadvantage.
In 2024, the Harris campaign and its primary PAC, Future Forward, outspent Trump's campaign and MAGA Inc. by nearly 3-to-1. A post-election analysis by The New York Times found that Team Trump leveraged audience targeting to stretch every advertising dollar further with the voters most likely to decide the election.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
Winning isn't about spending the most. Targeting determines efficiency. The campaigns that identify and reach persuadable voters most effectively will maximize every advertising dollar.
Watch the committees, not just the candidates. Republican committees and PACs currently hold a significant cash-on-hand advantage, giving them more flexibility as the campaign enters its final stretch.
The money race is just beginning. Nearly two-thirds of political ad spending historically comes after August 1. The biggest wave of spending is still ahead. Campaigns need to reserve inventory today.