Over the last two weeks, we dug into the $323M CA Gubernatorial Primary and the overwhelming frequency of Broadcast ads voters saw in the final stretch.
The 2026 cycle is projected to be the largest ever, bigger than the 2024 Presidential cycle, and campaigns are already struggling to break through the noise.
Then last Tuesday, the Supreme Court rewrote campaign finance law and opened the door to even more ad frequency.
Election Day is 119 days away. Advertisers who aren't planning for this change are already behind.
What did the Supreme Court change?
Campaigns aren't the only ones spending to win elections. This ruling is about the relationship between campaigns and party committees.
Party committees are arms of the two major parties:
Republican/Democratic National Committees (RNC/DNC): Elect Republicans/Democrats at all levels
National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC); Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC): Elect Republicans/Democrats to the House
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC); Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC): Elect Republicans/Democrats to the Senate
Since 1974, committees have faced a cap on how much they could spend in coordination with a campaign: $65,300–$130,600 per House race this cycle, up to $4M for Senate races.
Below the cap, a committee could help fund and plan the campaign's voter contact strategy. Above it, the committee could keep spending in the state or district, but could no longer talk to the campaign about strategy.
On June 30, the Court ruled 6–3 that the cap is unconstitutional. Committees and campaigns can now spend unlimited money in coordination.
Why does this matter?
Campaigns control more money. Donor caps still exist, but the caps on committee donations are much higher than campaign donations. By coordinating with one another, campaign operatives can effectively help direct a much larger pool of political spending.
Cheaper TV. TV stations must sell ad spots to candidates at the Lowest Unit Rate (LUR) in the 60 days leading up to a general election. Committees, PACs, and IEs are forced to pay much higher market rates. With the new coordination ruling, committee money can be used to buy TV spots at the lower campaign rate.
What is the impact?
TV is still projected to be the largest medium by spend in the 2026 cycle. In the recent California Governor primary, broadcast was 60% of all advertising spend($197M).
Let’s look to the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race to see how the rate difference plays out. In the week leading up to the election, the Philadelphia ABC affiliate (WPVI) was charging PACs/IEs 2x the price it was charging Dave McCormick. Market-to-market, and election-to-election, that price gap can be even higher. Now that committees can coordinate, they don’t have to pay that PAC tax.
Who is winning the fundraising battle?
Republicans.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
Campaigns and committees: take control of TV. You now own the cheapest access to the biggest medium. TV airings are fully trackable, and reach can be measured against a custom audience.
PACs: buy the gaps. You still have no contribution limits and can't coordinate. Use third-party measurement to see who campaigns and committees are reaching on TV, then spend where pricing is at parity: Streaming, Digital, Texting, Doors, Mail.
Everyone: measure across the whole race. More coordinated money means more frequency on the same heavy TV viewers. The advantage goes to whoever knows which voters are saturated and which are still unreached.