Last week we defined streaming and showed its explosive growth. This week, we’re looking ahead to how political campaigns will deploy their video budgets in 2026.
Why care about the 2026 Midterms? Control of Congress, 36 governorships, and 88 state legislatures are on the line. The outcome will shape policy, political appointments, and the national agenda through 2028. $11 billion in ad spend will help decide the outcome.
$11,170,000,000 in Political Video Ad Spend
That’s our projection for 2026 across Broadcast, Cable, Streaming, Desktop/Mobile, and Social Video.
Why just video?
Politics is about persuasion - convincing voters to vote and who to vote for. And to persuade, video is king. It combines reach, emotion, and narrative in a way no other medium can.
Our projections focus solely on video, we remove direct response, fundraising, search, and display.
2026 Midterm Video Spend Will Equal 2024 Presidential Cycle
Remember 2024? Trump versus Biden, then Harris. News articles about the billions being spent ($11.3B to be exact).
Now in 2026, there’s no presidential race at the top of the ticket, but the money isn’t leaving.
-1% Growth in the total political ad market since the 2024 Presidential Cycle
10% Growth in Digital Video, including streaming, since 2024 Presidential Cycle
We started CSM after 2016 to build a video-first product that helped political agencies navigate the shift to CTV and new video formats.
We expected the market to grow as viewership shifted. The scale of that shift has exceeded even our expectations.
348% Growth in the total political ad market since 2016, CAGR of 16%
1,433% Growth in Digital Video spend since 2016, CAGR of 31%
Similar CAGR to the expected growth of the AI market in the next decade.
Streaming Drives Growth
As we saw last week, time spent with all media is roughly flat, but the share of time spent with digital video and streaming are growing rapidly.
Political advertisers are responding to changing consumption habits by shifting ad budgets to video formats that command attention and move voters. While the video ad market grows Midterm-over-Midterm, that growth is driven by two clear winners: Streaming TV (CTV) and Social Video.
As Streaming Grows, Dollars Shift Back to the TV Screen
Before streaming took off, political advertisers responded to changing viewership by moving budget away from the TV screen. That trend has reversed.
Streaming TV is the best of both worlds. It is the big screen, audio on, with the targeting and buying capabilities of digital ads.
In 2026, 85% of video spend will go to the big screen. The highest share since 2016.
The Comeback Kid: Social Video
I have been negative on social video for a long time. The traditional in-feed format was built for scrolling, not storytelling. Users flew past ads, and on Meta we regularly saw five-second view rates well below 20%.
So what’s changed? We now project social video ad spend to grow 8% over the 2022 Cycle.
Social video formats have changed. TikTok’s popularity (TikTok does not currently allow political ads) has forced platforms to evolve. Reels, Shorts, and Stories have trained users to watch video again. When campaigns use the right creative in the right format, completion rates and engagement follow.
In a recent campaign, Facebook Reels had a 46% lower cost per ThruPlay than the News Feed.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
More $$ = More Attention - A decade ago, general-market ad sellers flew to DC in election years to hit Q4 numbers. Now major platforms and networks have political teams chasing campaign dollars. Your job: cut through the noise and buy where voters actually watch.
Track Trends - Our market is changing rapidly. Stay close to viewership trends and ad formats. The winning strategy of 2026 may not be on our radar today.
Find Efficiencies - Track opponent’s strategies and know how your audience watches video. Place ads based on data, not to keep up with the Jones’. There were campaigns in 2024 that were outspent, but reached more voters that actually mattered by having better strategies.
A huge thank you to our friends at AdImpact for their TV projections.
Chauncey