We’re 5 weeks from Election Day, and just over 400k people nationwide have already voted.
Earlier this year, we discussed Republicans’ fundraising advantage and how the Supreme Court’s ruling on coordination between campaigns and party committees could make it even more powerful.
So far, advertising spend in general elections (excluding primaries and ballot initiatives) has been fairly even.
The national political environment has also put more seats in play, including some that have been reliably Republican in recent elections.
Are Republicans holding back spending to make a bigger splash as voters pay closer attention and early voting begins?
Has the spending gap widened in September?
Yes, in the second half of the month, Republicans have pulled away from Democrats.
R: $771M (58%)
D: $557M (41%)
This reverses the spending advantage Democrats had in the 2024 presidential cycle.
Two takeaways:
A spending advantage doesn’t guarantee results. Republicans won the Senate, House, and White House in 2024 despite being outspent.
So far this fall, midterm spending is keeping pace with presidential-cycle spending.
What is the media mix by Party?
Nationally, Republicans are spending a slightly larger share on broadcast, while Democrats are spending a larger share on digital.
How has the Republicans’ spending advantage translated into share of voice?
Dollars spent don’t tell us how many voters saw an ad. To compare exposure, we looked at broadcast advertising in toss-up states and districts and measured ad impressions delivered to likely voters.
Share of Voice: The percentage of ad impressions served to Likely Voters that a Party’s advertisers own.
In competitive Senate races, Republican share of voice has grown over the past few weeks as their spending advantage has increased.
Democrats led in early August. After that, the parties were mostly even until mid-September.
In competitive House races, share of voice has been more even in recent weeks.
How does share of voice break out by competitive Senate race?
The last seven days of the Republican spending surge show where the money is concentrated.
Democrats lead in share of voice in North Carolina and Georgia, where they are increasingly favored to perform well.
Republicans lead everywhere else, including their two pickup opportunities: New Hampshire and Michigan.
How does share of voice translate to broadcast reach?
Broadcast reach has a clear ceiling, which varies by state based on viewing habits.
Despite differences in share of voice, the parties are reaching roughly the same share of likely voters in every state except New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is one of the country's heaviest TV-viewing states. There, Republicans lead in both reach and frequency.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
Spend alone doesn’t guarantee more reach. Republicans’ spending surge has increased their broadcast share of voice, but both parties still reach roughly the same share of likely voters in most states.
Spend alone doesn’t guarantee a win. Democrats spent more in 2024 and lost.
Messages matter. Spending more on ads that don’t resonate wastes money. When a campaign finds a message that moves voters, put the budget behind it to break through a crowded, fragmented media environment.