We are exactly 6 weeks from Election Day 2026!!
In the 2024 cycle, 46% of the entire cycle’s ad spend came in the last 6 weeks.
If that holds this year, we could see another $5.6B in spend, wrapping up the cycle with $12.2B in political advertising.
But campaigns are losing voters every day, starting now. Early voting is available in every state, with different schedules and rules. Once someone votes, they’re off the table for persuasion.
When does early voting start?
North Carolina voters are already voting, and other key Senate states will start soon.
Voting habits vary widely. In Southern states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, 75% or more of the electorate is expected to vote early.
In New Hampshire, most voters will cast ballots on Election Day. The state has no early in-person voting and requires an excuse to vote absentee by mail.
How many voters vote early?
In 2024, 60% of all votes were cast before Election Day, up from 49% in 2022.
When do people vote?
The good news for advertisers: there is still time. Campaigns have about a month to persuade voters before large numbers start coming off the table.
Two weeks before Election Day in 2024, 83% of votes were still outstanding. A week later, that dropped to 61%.
How do Republicans and Democrats vote?
Democrats are more likely to vote early, but the partisan gap has narrowed sharply.
During the pandemic in 2020, the gap was 18%. By 2024, it had fallen to 9% as more Democrats voted on Election Day. Republicans’ early-voting rate stayed roughly flat across presidential cycles.
But elections aren’t decided nationally. Each state has its own voting habits.
Our state-by-state analysis of 2024 early voting found a much larger Democratic share in Northern states, where early voting has a shorter history, than in Southern states.
What about Persuadable voters?
With our partner, Battleground Data, we model partisanship and turnout likelihood for every voter in the country.
To win in 2026, candidates need to win over persuadable voters, turn out their party’s less reliable voters, or both. High-turnout persuadable voters and mid- to low-turnout partisan voters are this election’s battleground.
When they vote matters. High-turnout voters tend to vote earlier, even when they’re persuadable. Start advertising to them earlier and build frequency to make the most of your ads.
Lower-turnout voters are more likely to wait until Election Day. As persuadable voters cast their ballots, shift a proportional share of the budget toward turning out your party’s less reliable voters. They often need fewer exposures, but the ads need to land closer to the election.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
Know your audience. Don’t just advertise to “Swing Voters”. Know what voters need to get your candidate to vote, and use that data to plan.
Plan buys with early vote in mind. High-turnout persuadable voters behave differently than mid- or low-turnout partisans.
Exclude voters whenever possible. All political advertisers should exclude voters every day and redistribute the budget to voters still on the table. Targeting someone who has already voted is a waste.