10M Americans have already voted in the 2026 Midterms. Political advertisers should already be adjusting their plans.
That number will grow quickly over the final two weeks as more early voting windows open and voters return their mailed ballots.
At the same time, election ad spending is accelerating. AdImpact reports that over $1B of TV inventory has been reserved for the final two weeks.
More spending, with fewer voters left to reach.
We expect roughly 25M fewer Americans to vote in 2026 than in 2024. Convincing your voters to turn out becomes just as important as persuading swing voters.
As early voting continues, the audience still available to advertisers changes. Media plans should change with it.
Who votes early?
The expansion of early and mail voting during COVID changed the way Americans vote. Together, these methods have accounted for more than half of ballots cast in recent elections.
Let’s remember that voters are real people, with real lives. Unlike the readers of this newsletter, they don’t think about politics all the time.
People with more time on their hands and solidified opinions vote early. As we get closer to Election Day, the chance that a person will vote at all drops.
Already Voted: 80% over 50.
Outstanding early vote: 70% over 50.
Election Day Voters: 57% are under 50.
Early voters are also more likely to be high-turnout voters. These are the people campaigns could already count on to show up.
As they cast their ballots, the remaining audience includes a larger share of voters who may need a push to show up.
How does early voting impact advertisers?
The differences go beyond age and turnout. These groups also watch video differently.
Expected Election Day voters watch more streaming than the groups voting earlier.
The difference in linear TV viewing is less dramatic, but the share of light viewers grows among expected Election Day voters.
As older, high-turnout voters cast their ballots, the remaining audience becomes younger and more streaming-heavy.
A media plan built for the full electorate becomes less aligned with the voters still available to influence.
How can advertisers account for early voters?
All political advertisers should:
Exclude people who have already voted - Update matched voter exclusions daily across streaming and digital campaigns. Once someone has cast a ballot, additional impressions can’t change their vote.
Show campaigns who is still available to reach. Report early voting within the campaign’s target audiences. Campaigns need to know which voters remain so they can coordinate advertising, field, and other turnout efforts.
Move budget as audiences shrink. As voters cast their ballots, reassess how much budget the remaining audience can absorb. Shift dollars toward other priority audiences where additional impressions can still make a difference.
Advertisers who are not doing these three things aren’t maximizing the value of impressions.
What does this mean for political advertisers?
Frontload budgets - maximize impressions to voters who have yet to cast their ballot in the days leading up to them voting.
Alter allocation based on early voting - Increase streaming allocation throughout early voting. TV becomes less effective as older early voters vote.
Track early voting and report back to campaigns - Close midterm elections are decided by turning out base voters.